Octubre 15, 2018

USA data due today - Nonfarm payroll for September - Preview.

06 Octubre 2017, 11:02 | Azura Castelo

Customers shop at a Whole Foods store in New York Thomson Reuters

Customers shop at a Whole Foods store in New York City U.S

Economists had predicted nonfarm payrolls would increase by 90,000 jobs last month.

Restaurants and bars took the biggest hit.

The U.S. economy lost 33,000 positions last month, largely due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

In September, health care added 23,000 jobs, in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+27,000).

It came as no surprise to economists that the September jobs numbers were weak, after back-to -back hurricanes pounded the Southeast.

Meanwhile, Capital Economics' chief USA economist Paul Ashworth said that the Federal Reserve and the markets will just ignore this report since a recovery is inevitable. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, which helps compile the report, said the storms probably cost roughly 50,000 to 60,000 jobs.

But a survey of USA households showed that employment grew by a 906,000 in September, helping push down the jobless rate to the lowest level since February 2001.

At the same time, unemployment rolls fell by 331,000, which itself is not a record but is the lowest since July 2001.

The fast food sector isn't known for paying its workers a lot of money - despite some recent minimum wage increases across the nation and moves by individual companies like McDonald's to boost hourly wages. That survey counted people as employed even if they were temporarily off work because of the storms.

"My guess is that was skewed", Faucher said.

Odds that the Federal Reserve will hike its key interest rate in December were almost 90% before the jobs data, but markets don't expect a subsequent hike until September 2018.

Excluding the hurricanes' effect on the monthly hiring data, several indicators suggest that the economy and the job market remain on firm footing.

And, since jobs data is collected during the week that contains the 12th of the month, September figures captured the tail end of Hurricane Irma as well as the extended impacts of Harvey. But don't read too much into that decline - Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which ravaged Texas and Florida, wreaked havoc on employment.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency declared 87 counties as disaster areas in the two states. That survey showed national employment rose, along with a growing labor force.

The jobs report does not include the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

In September, the pool of unemployed individuals was at 6.8 million. That could make the household survey a cleaner reading on underlying labor-market conditions last month.

Asian unemployment rates dropped 0.3 percentage points to 3.7 percent.

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