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05 Octubre 2017, 06:24 | Azura Castelo
US crude oil futures settle below $50
"We still believe that the odds of a meaningful and lasting oil-supply disruption are low".
The increase has been triggered by the wide discount in U.S. WTI prices against global Brent crude prices, which makes U.S. oil exports attractive. West Texas Intermediate crude of $54 a barrel for the fourth quarter, and $58 a barrel for Brent crude, the global benchmark.
Crude oil prices were moving closer to even moments before the opening bell in NY. Moreover, its goal for higher oil prices only invites further drilling by American producers.
However, a sudden rise in USA production at around August offset those gains once again where oil prices hovered around $47 per barrel before the market optimism that the OPEC would extend its agreement to cut its output until next year. Shale executives, once focused on growing output at almost any cost, are putting more emphasis on boosting their profitability.
"We don't see much in the way of incremental pipeline, particularly from the northeast, coming into the market until late in 2018, so we think we're in a relatively tight position until then", he said.
Brent may climb as high as $60 this quarter as a result of rising demand and political risks, including tensions in Iraq, U.S. President Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the Iran nuclear deal and social upheaval in Venezuela, Schnider said.
There is, however, a growing consensus that the market looks stronger than a year ago.
The declines came after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said late on Wednesday that US crude oil exports jumped to 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, surpassing the 1.5 million bpd record set the previous week. This should help draw down the massive 3 billion barrels of surplus crude oil that now plagues the oil industry.
Historical data support the bearish sentiment: a CNBC study using a hedge fund analytics tool revealed that over the last 25 years, the fourth-quarter performance of WTI has been negative more than half the time, with average quarterly returns over the period at a negative 7.5 percent. This is a ideal world for refining, Gary Ross, the founder of consultant PIRA Energy, said on the sidelines of the APPEC conference, held by S&P Global Platts. Therefore, the higher value of the United States dollar has made it more expensive for people not in the USA, to buy oil.
With demand outpacing supply, crude and refined products inventories are shrinking. Supplies stored at sea are dwindling too, traders say. AM trading but were unable to hold on to gains despite a larger than expected draw in crude oil inventories reported by both the EIA and the API.
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This, coupled with the reality of more oil being extracted this year and again the next, combined with the low price of its extractions, is prompting investors to pour money into the area.
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