Enero 23, 2020

Turkey threat to shut tap on Kurdish crude lifts oil price

28 Setiembre 2017, 08:23 | Bibiana Flor

Adding to Friday's market sentiment was industry firm Baker Hughes' closely-watched US rigs report showing another drop in the weekly oil rig count, this time by five to reach 744 - the smallest since June.

The energy minister from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said the country's compliance with OPEC's supply cuts was 100 per cent. Rate hikes may have a dampening effect on oil prices as the dollar strengthens in relation to commodities.

The Opec meeting last week provided a few positive headlines but fell short of any actual announcements.

But they are also trying to get a handle on the output of Libya and Nigeria, two countries that were exempted from the deal and have collectively added about 550,000 bpd since the original deal was agreed to past year.

Iran wants OPEC to impose caps on Libyan and Nigerian production.

The steady increase in Brent in recent weeks has been driven in part by renewed market confidence in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' plan to cut production and bring down the global supply overhang, as well as by fresh data from the International Energy Agency showing rising global demand growth.

"There is one million barrels per day of refining capacity still offline in Texas, with a handful of large facilities operating below capacity". Compliance levels rose to 94% in August as against 85% in July. "We have reached a price level with which even OPEC is likely to be satisfied".

The new price of Brent crude, which is $13.5 excess on each barrel of over 1.8 million barrels produced in the country, also surged the recovery hope for the country's budget. The former suggests there is still an oversupply, the latter that stocks are tight.

The number of oil rigs operating in USA fields has plateaued recently. At Cushing, crude stockpiles probably increased by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the survey.

The biggest unknown is the future of US production, which is expected to rise this year and next.

On the inventory side, USA oil inventories have been increasing for the past three weeks as the Hurricane impacted refinery demand.

Inventories of US crude fell by roughly 1.9m barrels in the week ended September 22, confounding expectations of a rise of 3.4m barrels.

The distillate stocks also fell, while gasoline inventories rose. Harvey forced almost 25% of USA refining capacity to be closed, along with half a dozen ports and pipelines, according to Reuters, which cut off access to crude, leaving supply untouched, and lowering prices.

US gasoline stockpiles were up 1.1 million barrels for the week after three consecutive weeks of declines, while distillate stockpiles fell 800,000 barrels, according to the EIA.

Kong also said emerging markets are in the driving seat on oil consumption. The oil price squeeze has been orchestrated by the Opec oil producers' group but could be exacerbated if Turkey follows through on threats to block supplies from Kurdistan. It was trading higher for the session at around $52.04 before the supply report. We should expect output growth in the States and Canada. This implies that almost 3.6 mbpd of demand which was affected could now come back. Courvalin reiterated his year-end Brent forecast for $58 per barrel on strong fundamentals. More US refineries returning to normal operations will keep prices bid up in the coming days. Since summer began, the contango is disappearing, and now Brent and Oman futures are in a state of backwardation for the rest of 2017 and for 2018, but OPEC's work is far from over. At the core, momentum investing is buying high, selling higher. The broader trend looks range bound between Rs 2,700-3,450 levels.

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