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12 Agosto 2017, 07:06 | Azura Castelo
USA consumer prices see modest rise in July
USA stock indexes opened higher for the first time in four days on Friday after tepid data pointed to benign inflation that could make the Federal Reserve cautious about raising rates again this year, even as concerns lingered over rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.
He added, "By then the weaker dollar should be boosting the price of imported goods and the transitory declines this year will drop out of the inflation calculation". Core PCE inflation has average only 1.7% an annual inflation on this basis has been below 2% for around 75% of the time. It's skidded lower since then as inflation numbers missed estimates and Congress failed to convince the market that any growth-positive actions are coming.
SLIDING: Traders sold off financial stocks amid speculation that the Fed will decide to hold off on raising interest rates next month. In fact, the market attached on a 2% probability that the current median "dot point" forecast among voting Fed members will be realised over the next year and a half.
"The Fed will want to see a number of months of at least stable inflation, and preferably some uptick in inflation, before they'll be happy", said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in NY.
"But it's a long time until December", Shepherdson said.
The central bank is expected to announce a plan to start reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its policy meeting in September.
Evans told reporters at a breakfast session at the Chicago regional bank that he agreed with Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the decline stems from a number of temporary factors, including a price war for mobile phone plans. He's forecasting a December hike by the Fed, though "with little conviction".
Rental costs maintained their upward trend last month.
The market barely thinks the Fed will move at all in 2018, expecting only one move. The year-over-year inflation rate was 1.7% vs. 1.8% expected.
Getting inflation higher "will remove the fear the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking when inflation is weakening", Simons said.
"Should prices rise more quickly already, the market would consider this a much stronger signal of higher interest rates in the future compared to a tight labour market", says Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyyen. "They probably still think the weakness in inflation is temporary, but they can not be sure". But doubts are starting to creep in.
"Hotel room rates are notoriously volatile and, consequently, we would normally expect July's fall to be reversed in August", said Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.
Stocks rally, but end a bit lower
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