Febrero 28, 2020

Hurricane season will be more active than expected, new forecast says

10 Agosto 2017, 08:53 | Bibiana Flor

Potential Cyclone 7 Track

Potential Cyclone 7 Track

One of those factors being the smaller likelihood of El Nino developing than previously thought. While there have been more storms than usual, they've all been pretty dinky and short-lived. Most of the major hurricanes that have made landfall over the years have been Cape Verde storms. While this is a bit busier than normal, most of these storms were fairly weak and didn't last very long.

Just as forecasters call for a busier hurricane season than usual there's a storm now strengthening in the Atlantic that's likely to be the seventh tropical cyclone of the year. It is expected to again make landfall on Mexico's east coast around 1 a.m. Thursday. "We are now entering the historical peak months of the season". The six named storms this year represent twice the number of named storms that ordinarily would form by early August, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, during a media call.

NOAA says residents on both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts should prepare for a major storm regardless of predictions.

In September 2013 Mexico was struck nearly simultaneously by hurricanes Ingrid in the east and Manuel in the west, leaving some 157 dead in the southern state of Guerrero.

Reports from Kermit, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, at around 12:00 a.m. Austin time showed wind speeds near the center at 57-63 miles per hour.

In addition, NOAA said wind and air patterns as well as warmer sea surface temperatures this season favor storm development.

NOAA said they have a "high degree of confidence these conducive conditions will persist", Bell said. A prediction of 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the May report. Also, this or any season forecast does not discuss locations of landfall, as those are hard to predict without a system to analyze. "And that's up from 45 percent in our May forecast". Forecasters have also been watching a disheveled group of thunderstorms 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands, giving it on Wednesday a 50 percent chance of becoming Gert - the next named storm.

On average, the "F" storm develops on September 8, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Reuters/Jonathan DrakeA large electronic billboard urges people to evacuate the Charleston and coastal areas before the arrival of Hurricane Matthew, in North Charleston, South Carolina, U.S., October 7, 2016.

Flooding rain swamped parts of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday. Category 3 Hurricane Karl in 2010.

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